Political analyst Żurawski on when Poland will go to war

Are there any chances for a truce with Russia, and when will Russia attack NATO countries? Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, the well-known Polish political scientist, professor at the University of Łódź, and advisor to the Polish government at various times, has been researching security issues in the European Union for many years. Today, he is a pessimist in many respects, but there are chances to overcome the Russian threat, and they are a little different than diplomatic efforts or even a limited military contingent.

The journalist Albina Trubenkova spoke with Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski specially for Novyny.LIVE. 

— At the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, you were quite optimistic about the security situation in Europe and the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight with the support of its partners. Has the security situation in Europe changed? How do you assess Ukraine's ability to continue fighting?

— Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022 with an army of about 170,000 troops, and it was a strategic mistake, an underestimation of Ukraine. At that time, Ukraine already had more than 240,000 soldiers who had combat experience since 2014. Our partners helped us to survive, and the role of the United States, the UK, and Canada was significant.

Germany's position was completely different, as evidenced by its ban on Estonia sending German military equipment to Ukraine. Poland assembled a coalition of tanks, then airplanes for Ukraine, when Germany supplied... 5,000 helmets. 2022 was a year of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation and, at the same time, the marginalization of Germany's role in Europe, which began to lose influence as the European Union societies saw a threat from Russia and distrusted Germany, whose military industry was losing orders.

The successful Polish-Ukrainian cooperation in 2022 caused concern in both capitals-Moscow and Berlin. In addition, the then-conservative government in Poland (due to its active engagement in support of the warring Ukraine) irritated Washington. The Biden administration's policy changed a little later.

I am convinced that Washington and Berlin's pressure on Ukraine led to the strategic mistake of official Kyiv: in 2023, Zelensky's team started a conflict with the Polish authorities under pressure. 

— Why strategic?

— Poland was the only major power on the eastern flank of the European Union and NATO that unconditionally supported Ukraine from the first minute of Russia's full-scale invasion. It was Poland that drove many of the processes of supplying heavy weapons and air defense systems to Ukraine. And back then, Polish society absolutely supported these actions. There was a consensus.

But in 2023, Polish society was shocked by President Zelensky's statement in his speech at the UN, when he accused Poland of playing along with Moscow. Meanwhile, the conflict over the transit of Ukrainian grain through Poland was growing. About 3 million Polish farmers were against the fact that part of the Ukrainian grain was illegally settling on the Polish market.

The then-Conservative government in Poland was also inconvenient for the European Union. It is significant that a month before the parliamentary elections in Poland in 2023, the European Commission lifted restrictions on the transit of Ukrainian grain. And the Polish government was faced with a choice: to go into conflict with Brussels or with 3 million of its own voters?

The Ukrainian government is remembered for having influenced, perhaps unwittingly, the political process in Poland by going into conflict with the official Warsaw. This still affects public opinion in Poland, which complicates the process of helping Ukraine.

— Against the backdrop of changes in United States policy, can the European Union become a military alliance focused on confronting Russia? 

— It has been my area of academic research since 1994. The European Union has had many declarations of intent over the past 30 years. We were supposed to have a 60,000-strong European army back in 2003. We are 22 years late.

The European Union has been facing a migration crisis since 2015, to which has been added an energy crisis due to the lack of cheap energy from Russia. To build something, the European Union would have to raise taxes significantly or seek loans on international financial markets. Not all European Union countries agree to bear the burden of increased defense spending. The Finns, Swedes, Estonians, Lithuanians, Latvians, Poles, and maybe even Romanians and Danes would agree. The rest will not, because they are far from Russia and do not feel threatened.

We had a lot of declarations with clear deadlines and numbers of troops. Now we in the European Union also have clear declarations, but when it comes to something that should happen in 2035, it is not known whether it will be realized. Russia will be ready earlier.

— Given that relations between the United States and the European Union are becoming more than chilly, what does the security of the European continent depend on? 

— It depends on Ukraine's ability to continue fighting. There will be no peace. It is an illusion. Russia is not fighting for territory, it is waging a war to destroy the Ukrainian state. The Russian Federation outlined its goals back in 2021: the return of NATO to its 1997 borders, which would make central and eastern Europe unprotected from Russian aggression. 

Perhaps Trump's team will finally recognize that an understanding with Russia is impossible and will begin to support Ukraine on a large scale — it is an optimistic scenario. Unfortunately, I do not believe in it.

I am convinced that the geopolitical game is for the separation of Russia from Iran, not from China. When it comes to the Middle East, it is clear that Iran must be deprived of Russian support, and Russia must be offered a substantial price for it. Ukraine has the opportunity to reject the scenario where it is being prepared to play the role of a bargaining chip in this deal. In any case, the war will continue because Russia will violate every agreement at the first opportunity.

Ukraine has no alternative but to fight. It can now rely on the support of the most determined - the Scandinavian and Baltic countries and Poland. However, the current Polish government is acting in line with German policy. And if Germany decides that Ukraine should not be helped, Poland will stop.

— What is the situation in Polish society now?

— There is no understanding that the Russian threat is close. Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have already introduced universal military service, while Poland has not. Because of the lack of public support. And this is a deep mistake for which we can pay a terrible price. I am a pessimist, I believe that we cannot avoid war, that Russian aggression will continue to move to the West.

The Poles are comforted by the fact that the Baltic states will be the first to be affected. But such a scenario does not decide the fate of Poland, and the conquest of Poland decides the fate of the Baltic states. Therefore, from the Russian point of view, it is more expedient to attack Poland first. We are protected from invasion because Ukraine is at war.

— What window of opportunities do we have to improve cooperation between Ukraine and Poland?

— 2-3 years. 

— So you think that Ukraine has 2-3 years of safety margin and will be able to continue fighting despite the ambiguous situation with the United States' support?

— I cannot say for sure. But Russia's ability to fight is also in question. It always seems to be more powerful than it really is. It is overestimated. The Russian Empire has always shown the ability to disintegrate instantly. For example, in 1916, there was the great successful Brusilov offensive, and four months later, the Tsar abdicated, and everything fell apart. The key is the instantaneousness of events.

For example, Tsushima in 1905, when the entire Russian fleet was sunk at the same time, Russian society was shocked by the incapacity of the government, which led to defeat. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also sank the Russian fleet, but the process was stretched over time, and there was no significant reaction.

We need events that will cause a shock in Russia. Because in a war of attrition, it wins, it has more resources.

At the same time, the West does not want a revolution in Russia, it is afraid of chaos. That is why it discourages the use of long-range missiles, and Ukraine has to hit the deep Russian rear with its own weapons.

Turkey is an interesting partner (in the confrontation with Russia — Ed.): it has growing disputes with Russia in the Caucasus and Crimea, and it has a tradition of 13 wars with Russia.

But without Poland's close cooperation with Ukraine — and this also has historical parallels — we will not overcome Russia. So it's a shame that the Polish-Ukrainian conflict is deepening, as we see in both societies.

We have to knock the historical instrument of the dispute between Ukraine and Poland out of the hands of the Russians, which is the Volyn tragedy. And a lot depends on the Ukrainian government: it must approach the issue not only from a historical perspective, but with the understanding that this dispute, the disputes of historians and politicians, only benefit Moscow. Russia has always supported conflicts in any European country.

I believe that it was possible to avoid a conflict between the two states based on the complex issue of apologizing for the Volyn tragedy, to find the appropriate words, because this issue is sensitive for Poles. And it is definitely not a reason for a dispute between countries that are under a mortal threat from Moscow.

— In Europe, there are different opinions about NATO's unity, given the situation in the United States and the Trump administration's statements. Does the Alliance guarantee security in Europe in the event of Russian aggression?

— Let's see who we have on NATO's eastern flank. In Estonia, we have the British (outside the European Union), in Latvia, we have the Canadians, and in Lithuania, we have the promise of Germany, which has not been able to send a brigade for a year. Would German public opinion support its government if it said it had to go to war with Russia to defend Lithuania? No, there would be a riot in Germany. A war between Germany and Russia is impossible. 

— Does it mean that Article 5 will not be implemented?

— It means that it will be implemented, it will be implemented by the Americans, they are the only ones who have the power. In addition, a situation may arise where Poland will be responsible for it. If the Russians strike the Baltic states, they will look to Poland for help, first and foremost. Then, if we have a prudent Polish government, the Polish military response should be immediate in the form of a strike on all Russian targets within the range of Polish weapons.

Poland should go to war immediately, regardless of the position of other states, otherwise it will be fighting alone, accused of being the first to violate Article 5. If the Baltic governments declare that they are victims of Russian aggression and call on their allies to enforce Article 5, Poland will face a choice: either to set a precedent for violating Article 5 or to go to war immediately.

— What if only Poland fulfills Article 5?

— It is better to fight alongside the Baltic states than alone. Because if the Baltic countries are overcome and it is demonstrated that Article 5 is not valid, Poland will be the next (to be attacked by Russia — Ed.), only then will it be left alone.  

— Won't it be interpreted as a provocation against Russia?

— Russia is provoked by our existence. Both Poland and Ukraine.

— In the event of a truce, what can guarantee Ukraine's protection from Russian aggression? 

— There is no such guarantee. And there will be no truce. This is a political game.

The demarcation line in Ukraine is at least 980 kilometers, at most 3,700 (the border where there is no fighting). It requires an army of millions to control it. No one will send the military on that scale. No one will send these forces at all without Russia's consent.

If the United States says it will not participate in this operation, and if these troops do not have the status of NATO troops, i.e., are not protected by Article 5, then a strike against them will not cause a reaction from the Alliance. They will not have any deterrent power. So, nothing will stop Russia from attacking. What will the states whose soldiers will be there do? They will withdraw their troops. They will not fight Russia. Ukraine will have no guarantees.

This war will continue until Russia is defeated. If it is not defeated in Ukraine, it will invade the next country, and then on until it is defeated.