How Ukraine's demographics will change after the war

It is impossible to collect reliable demographic information in the midst of active hostilities. But the fact that the mortality rate in Ukraine is now one of the highest in the world is quite likely.

This was announced in an interview with TSN on Sunday, December 15, by the Deputy Director for Research of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

What is known about the demographic situation in Ukraine

According to the expert, the mortality rate in Ukraine rose sharply in 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic. While in 2019 the mortality rate per thousand people was only 14.7, in two years it jumped to 18.5. During the three years of full-scale war, the situation has deteriorated, but it is impossible to provide accurate statistics because it is currently possible to keep records only in Ukrainian-controlled areas. According to the Ministry of Justice, between January and June of this year, a total of 87,655 babies were born in Ukraine, while the number of deaths reached 250,972.

Ukraine's birth rate is also too low. According to a representative of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, in order for the population not to decrease, one hundred women should give birth to 210-220 children. In 2019, this figure was half the required number — only 116, and during the full-scale invasion it decreased even more.

"According to expert estimates, one hundred women give birth to 90 children in Ukraine today, and according to UN estimates — 98 children. During the terrible war, our birth rate was slightly higher than in peaceful South Korea, so we cannot say that our birth rate is the lowest in the world. We are in a group of countries with the lowest birth rate — is a more accurate phrase," Oleksandr Hladun explained.

According to him, in order to avoid population decline, there should be a hundred deaths for every hundred births. In Ukraine, as of the first half of this year, there were 286 deaths per hundred births.

The scientist also added that after each war, there are so-called "compensatory processes" when the mortality rate decreases and the birth rate increases slightly.

"On average, this process lasts about three years... Then these indicators return to their natural level, which they could have been if not for the war... The demographic situation now depends entirely on the Armed Forces. The sooner they win, the sooner we can hope for a relative improvement in the demographic situation," the expert summarized.

As a reminder, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, said that during the two years of full-scale war, the population of Ukraine decreased by more than six million. In 2022, there were 42 million people in Ukraine, and in 2024 — only 35.8 million.

Earlier, Honored Doctor of Ukraine Olha Bohomolets said that if the demographic situation does not improve, the Ukrainian nation may disappear within the next 180 years. According to her, the country's birth rate has fallen dramatically, while the death rate has increased.